Table of Content

1. Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China
Fang Cai
Pages 107 – 119

2. Discussions on potential bias and implications of Lewis turning point
Yang Du; Wang Meiyan
Pages 121 – 136

3. The rise of labor cost and the fall of labor input: Has China reached Lewis turning point?
Wang Meiyan
Pages 137 – 153

4. Has China passed the Lewis turning point? A structural estimation based on provincial data
Yang Yao; Ke Zhang
Pages 155 – 162

5. The Lewis turning point of Chinese economy: Comparison with Japanese experience
Ryoshin Minami; Xinxin Ma
Pages 163 – 179

6. Macro-economic implications of the turning point
Ross Garnaut
Pages 181 – 190

7. What does the Lewis turning point mean for China? A computable general equilibrium analysis
Yiping Huang; Tingsong Jiang
Pages 191 – 207

8. Will Chinese growth slow after the Lewis turning point?
Ligang Song; Yongsheng Zhang
Pages 209 – 219

Article Abstract

1. Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis turning point in China
Fang Cai
Pages 107 – 119
Abstract: The disagreements on changed stages of demographic transition and the role of a demographic dividend in a dual economy development process often lead to wide debates among scholars about China's development stages. This paper tries to reveal the nexus between demographic transition and dual economy development: the common starting point, close-related processes, and identical characteristics of stages. Based on the empirical evidence of population dynamics, the paper supports the judgment of diminishing demographic dividends and an imminent Lewis turning point in China. The paper also argues that keeping a sustainable and steady economic growth, and becoming a high-income country as early as possible is the key and only way to close the 'aging before affluence' gap. Accordingly, the paper concludes by proposing measures to exploit the potential of the first demographic dividend, creating conditions for a second demographic dividend, and tapping new sources of economic growth. 
Keywords: demographic transition; demographic Dividend; Lewis turning point; aging before affluence  
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927330647~frm=titlelink

2. Discussions on potential bias and implications of Lewis turning point
Yang Du; Wang Meiyan
Pages 121 – 136
Abstract: Thanks to the fast economic growth and quick demographic transition, long-term factors have dominated the Chinese labor market. Therefore, with a short-lived shock in employment due to the global financial crisis, the labor shortage reappeared in the spring of 2010. Taking advantage of the recent aggregated data, this paper predicts the potentials of employment demand in the coming years. Also, the impact of demographic transition is discussed. In addition to quantity shortage, the rising wages for migrant workers characterize the labor market in recent years. Using the national representative data, this paper discusses the trend of labor cost changes when the Chinese economy approaches the Lewis turning point. The implications of large-scale migration to inequality are explored by using 1% population sampling data. This paper also tries to clarify some misunderstandings incurred by misuses of data. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point; labor cost; inequality 
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a923304831~frm=titlelink

3. The rise of labor cost and the fall of labor input: Has China reached Lewis turning point?
Wang Meiyan
Pages 137 – 153
Abstract: With the emergence and expansion of a shortage of migrant workers, there is much debate over whether China has reached Lewis turning point (LTP). This paper uses China's national farm product cost-benefit survey data to analyze changes of labor cost, labor input, capital input and marginal labor productivity in the agricultural sector. This paper finds that rapid rise of labor cost has happened in the agricultural sector since 2004, accompanied by rapid and significant wage increases for unskilled workers. Total labor input and labor input per unit of three major grain crops have been falling and capital-labor ratio has risen rapidly since the mid-1990s. Output elasticity of labor and marginal labor productivity of japonica rice has risen by a large extent between the period 1980-2004 and 2005-2008. The evidence provided in this paper can help people clarify the debate on whether China has reached LTP. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point (LTP); labor cost; labor input   
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927334894~frm=titlelink

4. Has China passed the Lewis turning point? A structural estimation based on provincial data
Yang Yao; Ke Zhang
Pages 155 – 162
Abstract: Using provincial data for the period 1998-2007, this paper estimates the supply and demand functions of migrant workers in each year for a typical Chinese province in a structural framework that explicitly takes into account the Lewis turning point (LTP) in the supply function. The results are extrapolated to the national level and the turning point and the equilibrium level of migrant employment are both estimated for each year. The comparison of those two estimates shows that China has not passed the Lewis turning point. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point (LTP); surplus labor; structural estimation  
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927334873~frm=titlelink

5. The Lewis turning point of Chinese economy: Comparison with Japanese experience
Ryoshin Minami; Xinxin Ma
Pages 163 – 179
Abstract: In this article, we estimate production function and calculate surplus labor in agriculture. The estimation results revealed that the Lewis turning point (LTP) was not yet passed in China. This study is also made in comparison with Japanese historical experience. The main contents are as follows. First, we survey the recent change in the urban labor market by using unemployment rate as an index to express the balance of labor demand and labor supply, and wage differentials between agriculture and urban industries with high productivity and high wages. Second, we estimate agricultural production function and calculate the marginal productivity of labor and surplus labor in order to demarcate LTP. Third, we reveal factors for the change in agricultural labor by referring to a growth in urban industry and argue on the role of rural industries in absorbing surplus labor. Finally, we refer to several important issues which are left for future studies. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point (LTP); transformation of the labor market; surplus labor; agricultural production function; marginal labor productivity  
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927332516~frm=titlelink

6. Macro-economic implications of the turning point
Ross Garnaut
Pages 181 – 190
Abstract: China's rapid growth in the reform era has been built around the availability of large amounts of migration from the countryside to the industrial cities, associated with only small increases in real wages. This pattern of growth has generated high savings, investment, rates of output growth, external payments imbalances, and high and growing inequality in the distribution of income. Slow and soon negative population and work force growth, rapid increase in modern sector demand for labor from an ever-higher base, and rapidly increasing investment in education per school-age person have absorbed most or all of the 'surplus' labor from the countryside, and rapid urban demand for labor is now associated with large increases in real wages in town and village. This paper explores analytically the effects of the exhaustion of underemployed labor in the countryside on these economic variables, and on the structure of trade and industry. It suggests some approaches to policy that can make this a favorable time for growth with equity in China. 
Keywords: China economy; wages; labor market; exchange rate; inflation; income distribution; comparative advantage 
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a923318960~frm=titlelink

7. What does the Lewis turning point mean for China? A computable general equilibrium analysis
Yiping Huang; Tingsong Jiang
Pages 191 – 207
Abstract: We apply a computable general equilibrium framework to assess likely impacts of the Lewis turning point (LTP) on China and the rest of the world. Modeling results suggest that China will probably transition from an abnormal economy to a normal economy with somewhat lower growth but higher inflation, which requires significant revision to the macroeconomic policy framework. China would lose competitiveness in labor-intensive activities, its current account surplus should fall but overinvestment risk could rise. These changes in China should help improve other countries' current accounts and boost low-cost countries' production. The LTP, however, does not provide automatic solutions to some of the key challenges, such as service sector development and innovation capability. China will need to make serious policy efforts to avoid the so-called 'middle-income trap'. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point; labor shortage; general equilibrium analysis; normal economy; middle-income trap 
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927331313~frm=titlelink

8. Will Chinese growth slow after the Lewis turning point?
Ligang Song; Yongsheng Zhang
Pages 209 – 219
Abstract: The paper argues that China's economic growth will not necessarily slow after China reaches the Lewis turning point (LTP) when wages and subsequently costs of production, as a result of the exhaustion of the unlimited supplies of labor from rural areas, are increasing. Reaching the turning point leads to significant structural change signifying that China enters a new phase of development in which those endogenously determined factors such as human capital, innovation, R&D expenditure and technological progress begin to play more important roles than contributions made simply by inputs of physical capital, labor and resources in enhancing economic growth. To achieve the continual growth, certain conditions are needed in the transition toward and beyond the turning point including among others the institutional reform which enables China to further transform itself in order to embrace a new mode of economic growth driven predominantly by efficient, sustainable and equitable considerations. 
Keywords: Lewis turning point (LTP); endogenous growth; institutional reform 
Link to the original text:
http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a927330841~frm=titlelink