International Conference and Training Workshop on
Household and Living Arrangement Projections for Informed Decision-Making
May 9-11, 2019, Beijing, China
Sponsored by Department of Management Science of National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) and UNFPA China Office, and jointly organized by China Population and Development Research Center, Center for Healthy Aging and Development Study and Raissun Institute for Advanced Studies at National School of Development, Peking University, Center for Family and Population Research at National University of Singapore, and Center for Households and Consumption Forecasting of Digital China Health; and as part of the research activities of the ongoing project supported by NSFC as well as “China National Health Safeguard Information System” which is conducted and hosted at China Population and Development Research Center and Digital China Health, and supported by National Development and Reform Commission of China.
Contacts: Yao Yao (yaoyao@nsd.pku.edu.cn, Tel. (+86) 17744485170, for international participants), Danyin Wang (danyin_wang@163.com, Tel. 86-10-62127586 and (+86)13121398767, for domestic participants)
May 9 (Thursday)
Location: Conference room at 2nd floor of Wan Zhong building, National School of Development at Peking University
8:45~9:00 Arrival of the participants
9:00~9:30 Opening Ceremony (3-5 minutes for each brief remarks)
Chair: Dan He (Director General of China Population and Development Research Center, CPDRC)
Miaojie Yu, Associate Dean and Boya Distinguished Professor of National School of Development,
Peking University
Wenzhuang Yang, Director General of Department of Population Surveillance and Family
Development of National Health Commission of People’s Republic of China
Suren Navchaa, Deputy Representative, UNFPA in China
Benoît LAPLANTE, Chair of IUSSP Committee on Family Demography and Family Law and
Professor of Université du Québec
Wenzhao Shi (Technical Director General of“National Health Safeguard Information
System (NHSIS) of China” and President of Digital China Health, which works with CPDRC
jointly conducting the NHSIS)
9:30~10:50; Session 1
Keynote speeches and brief report/establishment of international consortium
Chair: Xiaoyan Lei (Professor of National School of Development and Director of Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, Peking University)
Keynote speeches (18 minutes for each keynote speech, 16 minutes for open question/discussion)
Jorge Bravo (Chief of Population Policies and Development Branch of Population Division, United
Nations), Household size, composition and living arrangements: A global overview, with some
linkages to development.
Xiru Li (Director General of Population and Employment Statistics Division, National Bureau
of Statistics of China), China Demographic Statistics: Main Practices and Data Products.
Xiuli Liu (Professors of Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science and Assistant Director of
Center of Forecasting Science, China Academy of Sciences) and Shouyang Wang (Professor of
Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science and Director of Center of Forecasting Science,
China Academy of Sciences), Evaluating the impacts of family household size on residential
energy consumption in China.
Brief Report of establishment of “International Consortium on Household and Living
Arrangement Projections for Sustainable Development” (10 minutes)
-- Jointly reported by Dan He 4 minute (China Population and Development Research Center);
Xiuli Liu --1 minute (China Academy of Sciences), Qiushi Feng --2 minute (National University of
Singapore), Leiwen Jiang --1 minute (Population Council and Shanghai University),
Samuel Vezina --1 minute (Université du Québec), Yi Zeng (Peking University, Duke University).
International Consortium on
Household and Living Arrangement Projections for Sustainable Development
Background and Significance
Population growth is very much slowed down and will become negative soon in many countries. However, numbers and structure of households and patterns of living arrangements, which are units of and determine energy consumption, housing, home-consumer goods, elderly care and many other services, are growing and changing quickly. This is mainly due to changing demographic factors, including lower marriage rates, higher divorce rates, more migrations, and the vanishing social norms that prescribe co-residence of old parents and adult children. Consequently, relying on traditional approach of using population projections to forecast home-based energy demands, housing, home-consumer goods and services would mislead policy-makers and business management. Moreover, household and living arrangement projections are also needed at sub-national and county/city levels for distributing government funds, allocating various types of resources, planning the development of infrastructure and public facilities, market research, production planning for household-related goods and services, and decisions on the expansion or reduction of local businesses. These are reasons why we propose to establish “International Consortium of Household and Living Arrangement Projections for Sustainable Development”.
Missions of the International Consortium
The missions of the International Consortium are to promote international collaborative research, academic discussions and information exchanges, through annual (or biennial) conferences (or workshops) hosted by interested institutions in different countries, as well as other research communications of Website online information exchanges. The following activities are envisaged:
-- Estimate the age-sex-specific standard schedules of the occurrence/exposure (o/e) rates of marriage/union formation and dissolutions and the age-parity-specific o/e rates of marital and non-marital fertility.
-- Analyses and projecting living arrangements of children and single-parent (especially single mother), such as: how many children will live in single-parent households, and how many single mothers will have to care for their 1, 2, 3 or more children with no spouse or partner present in the future years?
-- Analyses and projections on family households, elderly living arrangements, caregivers and home-based care needs/costs for elders who have cognitive and daily living disability;
-- Household and home-based energy demands forecasting for sustainable development planning;
-- Probabilistic household and living arrangement projections.
-- Combine micro & macro simulation models for household and living arrangement studies;
-- Other topics consortium members may propose.
Coordination Group:
Dan He and Xuyin Zhang (Professors, Director General and Deputy Director General of China
Population and Development Research Center);
Xiuli Liu (Professor and Assistant Director of Center for Forecasting Science at China Academy of
Sciences);
Frans Willekens (Emeritus Professor, University of Groningen, and Honorary Fellow of the
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI))
Tom Wilson (Professor, Charles Darwin University, and Editor of Australian Population Studies)
Samuel Vezina (Université du Québec and Statistics Canada)
Simon Choi (Professor, Chung-Ang University, South Korea, and Former Chief of Research and
Forecasting Southern California Association of Governments, U.S.A)
Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor and Deputy Director of Center for Family and Population Research
National University of Singapore),
Leiwen Jiang (Research fellow of Population Council in New York and Director of Center for Asian
Population Studies, Shanghai University);
Yi Zeng (Professor, Peking University and Duke University).
10:50~11:00; Group photo
11:00~11:15; Coffee and tea break
Important note: All Chairs and presenters please strictly control that each presentation has a maximum of 15 minutes and each session has 25 minutes for open questions and discussion.
11:15~12:40; Section 2
Analyses on past, present and future trends in households and living arrangements
Chair: Benoît LAPLANTE (Professor, Université du Québec)
Yi Zeng (Professor of Peking University and Duke University), A brief report on development of the
database “Household and living arrangement projections for the rural and urban areas of 31
provinces in China”, jointly conducted by China Population and Development Research Center,
Center for Healthy Aging and Development Study, National School of Development at Peking
University, and Center for Households and Consumption Forecasting of Digital China Health, with
collaboration and support from Population and Employment Division, National Bureau of Statistics
of China.
Sabahat Hussain (Research Demographer, Population Council, Islamabad, Pakistan), Family breakdown and household formation in Pakistan, consequences and policy way-forward
Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor and Deputy Director of Center for Family and Population Research, National University of Singapore) and Jean W Yeung (Provost’s Chair Professor of Sociology, Director of Centre for Family and Population Research and Research Leader in Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore), Who will live alone? The One-person Households in China, 2010 to 2050
Jhabindra Bhandari (Researcher, Health Research and Development Forum (HRDF), Nepal), Multi-disciplinary perspectives of demographic changes of Nepal: trends and implications
12:40~14:00; Lunch
14:00~15:40; Section 3
Methodologies and databases for family household analyses and projections
Chair: Toru Suzuki (Deputy Director-General, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)
Nico Keilman (Professor, Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Norway), Probabilistic household and living arrangement forecasts
Benoît LAPLANTE (Professor, Université du Québec), Alternative strategies for the estimation of union formation, union dissolution, and leaving the parental home rates
Ann Meier (Faculty Advisor and Co-PI for IPUMS International, University of Minnesota). Introduction of IPUMS International: Census data for demographic research and teaching, including household and living arrangement projections
Gustavo Brusse (Researcher at Campinas State University, Brazil), Household Projections in
São Paulo State, Brazil: A Comparison Between the ProFamy Extended Cohort-Component
Method and the Headship Rate Method
Ying Liang (Researcher, China Population and Development Research Center), Family dynamics change in China: An Analysis based on China Family Development Follow-up Survey.
15:40~15:55; Coffee and tea break
15:55~17:35; Section 4
Family households, living arrangements and healthy aging
Chair: Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of Population Council, New York, and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University)
Toru Suzuki (Deputy Director-General, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan), Living Arrangements of Elderly People in Japan
Xiaoyan Lei (Director and Professor of Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development, Peking University) (1) A brief introduction of Chinese longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS); (2) Social activity, living arrangement and cognitive ability: Evidence from CLHLS （15 minutes plus 5 minutes for introducing CLHLS in general）
Parveen Kaur (Senior Lecturer, University Malaysia Sarawak), Household Living Arrangements of Older Malaysians: Issues and Concerns
Wen-shan Yang (Professor of Taiwan Academia Sinica), Hsinmu Chen and Yi-Jen Shih, Household and Living Arrangement under the Lowest-Low Fertility Regime: The Case of Taiwan
Md. Ismail Tareque (Associate Professor, University of Rajshahi), Healthy life expectancy by living arrangements among older men and women
18:30~; Reception and dinner at Yi Yuan restaurant in Peking University campus
May 10 (Friday)
Location: Conference room, 4th floor of China Center for Population and Development Research
8:45~9:00 Arrival of the participants
9:00~10:40; Section 5
Household/ living arrangement projections and sustainable development
Chair: Hongyan Liu (Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)
Leiwen Jiang (Senior research fellow of Population Council, U.S., and Director of Asian Population Research Center, Shanghai University), Household Projections for the Environmental and Climate Change Assessment.
Hong Mi (Professor and Director of Population Research Institute, School of Public Affairs, Zhejiang University), Analysis of Household Electricity Consumption Pattern: A Base for Projection using ProFamy
Simon Choi (Professor of Chung-Ang University of South Korea, and Former Chief of Research and
Forecasting at Southern California Association of Governments, U.S.A) , Forecast Households at the County Level: An Application of the ProFamy Extended Cohort-component Method in Six Counties of Southern California, 2010 to 2040
Man Li (School of Public Administration, East China Normal University) and Shanwen Zhu: (School of Public Administration, East China Normal University, and Officer of Shanghai Changning District Government.), The effects of households, living arrangements and family-based socioeconomic behavior on cognitive function among survival elderly and health status before dying among dead elderly in rural China.
Helin Huang (Senior research fellow, Institute of Macroeconomics, Hebei Provincial Commission on Development and Reform), Households and home-based energy consumption forecasting in Hebei province
10:40~10:55; Coffee and tea break
10:55~12:50; Session 6
Applications of household and living arrangement projections in socioeconomic planning and policy analyses
Chair: Zhenzhen Zheng (Professor of Chinese Academy of Social Science, Associate Director of Center for Healthy Aging, Peking University)
Geovane da Conceicao Maximo and Stella Maris Lemos Nunes (Associate Professor, Universidade Federal dos Vales do Jequitinhonda e Mucuri (UFVJM), Brazil), Geotechnologies applied to population and household projections: simulations for five Brazilian metropolitan regions in the period 2020-2030.
Xiaochun Qiao (Professor, Institute of Population Research, Peking University), Estimates of the needs of public housing and the policy implications in Macao.
Huachu Zhang (Professor, South China Normal University), Analysis and forecast of household housing demands in Guangdong Province of China.
Yutong Li (Professor, Population Research Institute, Jilin University), Study on Changes of Housing Demands and the implications in socioeconomic planning in Liaoning Province of China, 2010-2050.
Xiaofei Wang (Research Associate, China Population and Development Research Center), Chinese Women's Family Status: Analysis of Chinese Decennial Surveys, 1990-2010.
12: 50~12:55; Closing remarks by Xuying Zhang, Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center.
12:55~13:55; Lunch
13:55~14:40, Visit the Population Data Lab of China Population and Development Research Center: Introduce Population Administration and Decision Information System (PADIS+) which is developed and hosted at China Population and Development Research Center and Digital China Health.
Program of International Training Workshop on ProFamy user-friendly & free software for Household and Living Arrangement Projections
May 11, 2019, Beijing, China
Location: Conference room, 4th floor, China Population and Development Research,
Chair of the training workshop: Xuying Zhang (Associate Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)
8:45~9:00 Arrival of the participants
9:00~9:10; Opening Remarks
Jorge Bravo (Chief of Population Policies and Development Branch of Population Division, United
Nations)
Dan He (Director General of China Population and Development Research Center)
Wenzhao Shi (Technical Director General of “China National Health Safeguard Information
System” jointly conducted and hosted at CPDRC and Digital China Health, and President of
Digital China Health)
9:10~12:30;
Session 1. ProFamy software: lecture and tutorial
Lecturers: Zhenglian Wang (Senior research fellow of China Population and Development Research Center and Senior research scientist of Center for Population Aging and Health Research, Duke University) and Liquan Zhou (Research Program Manager, Digital China Health)
Tutorial mentors: Yue Li (Research Associate, China Population and Development Research Center) and Hanmo Yang (Research Assistant, Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies, National School of Development at Peking University)
(1) “Specify Models and Data Types” mainly deals with the specifications of model design parameters, and data types of the base population.
(2) “Data Preparation” of base population and the input data such as age-sex-specific standard schedules (including application of ProFamy software to estimate the age-sex-specific net rates of leaving parental home based on two adjunct censuses data) and projected (or assumed) summary measures for future years.
10:30-10:45; Coffee and tea break
10:45-12:30; Session 1 (continued);
(3) “Computation of the Projection” and “View and manage the outputs” (intuitively view and manage the output of the tables and graphics of households, living arrangements and population projections in the baseline and future years).
12:30-13:30; Lunch
13:30-14:10; Session 1 (continued);
(4) How to use the user-friendly module of ProFamy software to construct multistate marital/union status life table and marital/union0oarity status life table, using the relevant input data for household projections.
14:10~14:40; Session 2. How to utilize the database at IPUMS International: Census Data for Demographic Research, including household and living arrangement projections
Lecturer: Ann Meier (Faculty Advisor and Co-PI for IPUMS International, University of Minnesota)
14:40~16:20;
Session 3. R program module of the ProFamy software: lecture and tutorial
Lecturers: Huashuai Chen (Research Associate, Center for Aging and Human Development Studies, Duke University) and Kuangshi Huang (Research Associate of China Population and Development Research Center),
Tutorial Mentors: Yue Li and Hanmo Yang
How to use the user-friendly R program module of the ProFamy software to estimate the age-sex-rural/urban (or race)-specific standard schedules of the occurrence/exposure (o/e) rates of marriage/union formation and dissolutions and the age-parity-specific o/e rates of marital and non-marital fertility, for household and living arrangement projections (refer to section 4.1 and the Appendix of Summary Note of the background materials).
16:20-16:35; Tea and coffee break
16:35~17:55
Session 4. Applications of ProFamy software package: lecture and question/discussion
Lecturer: Qiushi Feng (Associate Professor and Deputy Director of Center for Family and Population Research, National University of Singapore)
1. How to use ProFamy software for household and living arrangement projections at small-areas level (Refer to Feng et al. 2019 and Chapter 6 of the Springer book of ProFamy by Zeng et al. 2014).
2. How to use the ProFamy software to conduct projections of home-based energy demands, housing and other home-based goods and services, in addition to household and living arrangement projections (Feng et al., 2011; Dalton et al.,2008; Smith et al,2008; 2012).
3. How to use the user-friendly BasePop module of ProFamy software for empirical analyses on the trends of dynamic changes in household size, structure and living arrangements of elderly, children and adults, based on the census micro data file (refer to section 3.5 of Summary Note of the background materials for this training workshop; Zeng & Wang, 2019).
17:55~18:00; Closing remarks by Dr. Xuying Zhang
