The pension system is of profound significance in terms of individual interests and national development strategies. As the aging society approaches, China needs answers to the following questions: how should we take care of the elderly? What should the government do to reform the pension system? What are the golden opportunities for the pension industry?

On December 3, 2013, National School of Development at Peking University (NSD) hosted a forum whose theme was National Challenges and Business Opportunities of China’s Pension System. Scholars from NSD and entrepreneurs in the pension industry attended the forum and had a thorough and targeted discussion of the above-mentioned issues.

Prof. Zhao Yaohui, Associate Dean of NSD, believes that China is faced with a great number of urgent problems as the population is aging rapidly. These involved increasingly serious health issues concerning aging, a remarkable lack of medical care and life care which were aimed at the elderly, as well as the high poverty rate among them especially in rural areas.

Professor Yaohui Zhao has been focusing on the study of Chinese labor force and population economics for a long time. The program of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study（CHARLS）which she is in charge of applies the most rigorous and scientific research methods to dynamically track the Chinese population’s aging process over the long term, particularly the financial situation, psychological and physical condition of the aged people who are over age 60. It is the most authoritative database of the aging population in China.

Professor Jiehua Lu is the Deputy Director of the Center for Healthy Aging and Development Studies (CHADS) at the National School of Development of Peking University, the PhD supervisor for the Department of Sociology at Peking University, and also the member of Beijing Municipal Committee of Jiusan Society. He is one of the top experts on population study in China. He thinks in the Third Plenary Session, the policy that allows couples with one spouse being an only child to have two children is a significant measure on population policy, which means the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China has adjusted its goal of population policy as not only controlling the overall population gross, but also dealing with the issue of the aging of population. However, according to professor Jiehua Lu’s estimation, after the population policy is relaxed, there will be “a small baby boom” in two or three years, but yet the fertility rate will not rise sharply, especially the long-term fertility rate which may even decline.

Besides two senior researchers on aging problem, the forum also invited some entrepreneurs, Liu Chang, Han Weimin and Han Ruobing etc., who are the alumni of the EMBA in the National School of Development of Peking University. As an investor in the old-age pension industry, Liu Chang has launched an in-depth investigation on the pension industry before. He said, he agreed on the judgment of Professor Zhao Yaohui about the deficiency in the domestic pension provision. He thinks that the domestic pension industry is still in the stage of preliminary development, which still has a wide market growth space. Yang Weimin, president of Jiu Hua Xi Xiu, a nursing home, has done research on the construction and operating modes of nursing homes for 8 years, and whose nursing home has become a branded chain. He thinks that because the development of the pension industry in China is characteristic of Chinese markets, it must be taken into consideration that the elderly have a strong emotional need for their families, children and themselves, so they’re not simply concerned about improving the level of their material life. Han Ruobing after graduation from his EMBA has invested himself into the old-age real estate development, business model, which has taken shape. He thinks that domestic old-age real estate sector is very promising and it will become a new growth point in the commercial real estate industry.

The pension professional forum of National School of Development in Peking University is also an important installment during the 21WEEK Meeting. Launched by 21st Century Media, and hosted by the 21^st Century Business Herald, 21WEEK Meeting includes the most influential events, aiming to create a top-notch finance and economics conference open platform. 

中国式养老的国家挑战与产业机遇

养老问题关系到每一个人的切身利益和国家发展战略，面对汹涌而来的老龄化社会，我们究竟该让自己的父母如何养老？我们国家又该做哪些养老制度建设？养老产业最大的投资机会在哪里？
 
    2013年12月3日，在由北京大学国家发展研究院主办的“中国式养老的国家挑战与产业机遇”论坛上，来自国家发展研究院的学者，与养老产业的企业家们，共同就以上这些问题，展开了全面而又有针对性的探讨。

北大国家发展研究院副院长赵耀辉教授认为，面对人口老龄化的汹涌到来，中国的国家和社会，还有很多急需解决的问题。包括与老龄化相关的健康问题日益严重，社会针对老龄化的健康医疗服务和生活照料服务供给严重不足，以及老年人口，特别是农村老年人口贫困率较高等问题。

    赵耀辉教授长期专注于中国劳动力与人口经济学的研究，她担任总负责人的“中国健康与养老追踪调 查（CHARLS）项目”，采取最严谨科学的调查方式，长期动态跟踪中国人口的老龄化进程，尤其是60岁以上老龄人口的财务状况、心理与身体健康状况，是中国关于老龄人口最权威的数据库。

陆杰华教授是北大国家发展研究院健康老龄与发展研究中心副主任，北大社会学系博导，九三学社北京市委常委，是中国最顶级的人口研究专家之一，他认为，三中全会的决议中，放开“单独二胎”的生育，是一个重要的人口政策举措，这说明中央已经将人口政策的目标，不仅仅放在人口总量的控制上，同样也用于应对人口老龄化的问题上。但陆杰华教授估计，政策放开后，两三年内可能会出现生育数量的“小高峰”，但是生育率水平不会大幅度上升，特别是长期生育率水平，可能还会呈下降趋势。

CONTINUE TRANSLATION:

    除了两位资深的老龄问题研究学者外，论坛还邀请了北大国家发展研究院EMBA校友刘畅、杨伟民、韩 若冰等企业家出席，刘畅作为养老产业的投资人，之前对养老产业已有了深入的考察，他表示，他十分同意赵耀辉教授对于国内养老供给欠缺的判断，他认为，国内的养老产业依然处在发展初步阶段，依然有很高的市场增长空间。九华兮秀董事长杨伟民在养老社区的建设与运营模式上已经有8年的探索，并已经具备形成连锁品牌。他认为，中国的养老产业的发展，有着中国市场特有的风格，必须要充分考虑老年人对家庭，对子女，以及对自身的情感需求，而不是简单的提高物质水平。韩若冰在EMBA毕业后即投身养老地产的开发，商业模式也已经成形，他非常看好国内养老地产的前景，认为这将是商业地产行业一个新的增长点。