December 20, 2020, the 5th National Development Forum was held by the National School of Development (NSD) at Peking University (PKU). Qiu Shuiping, Chairman of PKU Council, attended the event and delivered a speech. Many prestigious scholars and guests speakers participated in the discussion, shared research results, and explored new approaches for development.
With the theme of “Fostering a New, Dual-Cycle Development Pattern”, the forum was divided into such sections as keynote speeches, expert dialogues and discussion, and released a number of index results for 2020. Meanwhile, a parallel sub-forum was also held.
At the opening of the forum, Chairman of PKU Council Qiu Shuiping gave a speech in which he extended gratitude to all guest speakers for being at PKU to share their research achievements. He pointed out that in promoting domestic and international circulations, China would further push ahead with profound economic transformation and continue its distinctive innovative practice. This historic march toward modernization provided strong driving force and created even brighter prospects for theoretical Innovation and thriving in academic research, as well as brought golden strategic opportunities for developing economics, management and other disciplines and reinforcing relevant mechanisms and systems. In the past five years, as an important national think tank, the National Development Forum launched by the NSD has contributed valuable insights and proposals. He wished the forum could “stay true its original aspiration and keep its mission firmly in mind”, so as to pool wisdom for China's high-quality development and meanwhile oriented toward world and the future, the forum could contribute China’s wisdom and solutions for fueling the global economy and delivering a better life for all people.
Yu Miaojie, Rotating Chair of the 5th National Development Forum, Deputy Dean of the NSD, presided over the forum. He introduced the history and missions of the National Development Forum, and invited the attendees to watch the themed short film for this year's forum “Ten Issues Profoundly Affecting China”. He encouraged the guest speakers to boldly raise questions and have in-depth discussions.
Yao Yang, Boya Distinguished Professor and Dean of the NSD, said the year 2020 was a special year and China was pulling ahead in the world’s economy and recovered from the global pandemic recession. Chinese authorities unveiled a “dual circulation” strategy and the NSD got actively involved in discussions and came up with policies and recommendations. Discussion participants would voice their opinions from various perspectives and he believed this year’s forum would borne fruitful outcomes.
Zhang Junkuo, Vice President of the Development Research Center of the State Council, and Du Ping, former Executive Deputy Director of the National Information Center and the Secretary-General of the National Strategic Emerging Industries Development Committee addressed. Zhang Junkuo gave his insight into the new dual-cycle development pattern from the perspective of the changing development stages. He pointed out that to build a new development pattern, China must fulfill two core tasks-stepping up efforts for expanding domestic demand and remedying shortcomings in the development, and strike a balance between unlocking potential in domestic demand and opening up even more to the world, between independent innovation and open technologies. Du Ping gave a speech themed “14th Five-Year Plan Period: New, Dual-Cycle Development Pattern and High-quality Development of Strategic Emerging Industries”, urging more efforts in fostering a new dual-cycle development paradigm with inheritance from previous growth strategies and with innovation as the mainstay.
In the first part of the keynote speech, experts and scholars shared their opinions around the theme of “How to achieve‘dual circulation' development (section one): technological breakthroughs, opening to the outside world, and expanding consumption.” NSD Associate Professor Wang Min presided over this session.
Yao Yang gave a keynote speech themed “The Path to Technology Self-Reliance in the New Era”. He pointed out that it was necessary for China to build its own core technology, but opening up is still an effective way for China to obtain some advanced technologies as alternative, so it could not be abandoned. He reminded the attendees to clarify the relationship between “Plan A” and “Plan B” rather than reverse priority queue. At the same time he stressed that the relationship between the government and the market had to be handled well.
Zhang Yuyan, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), member of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), and Director of Institute of World Economics and Politics, suggested the attendees adopting a historical perspective to expound on the relationships among technological breakthroughs, opening up, and expanding consumption. He said China could draw reference from the British Industrial Revolution in terms of technological breakthroughs, opening up to the outside world, and boosting consumption.
Yu Miaojie delivered a keynote speech entitled “RCEP Makes New Ground in Pursuing Opening-up on All Fronts”. He held that against the backdrop of fostering a new, dual-cycle development architecture, such important areas as China-US relations and the multilateral cooperation on regional scale should be taken into account when thinking about the great changes of international landscape. He also shared the key points of how to make domestic and international circulations reinforce each other.
Xu Shanda, Head of the SEEC Research Institute and former Deputy Commissioner of the State Taxation Administration, focused on the competitiveness of China’s corporate tax systems and asset-liability ratio. He pointed out that China’s value-added tax policy is unfavorable to high-tech and capital-intensive enterprises. He said incentives provided by China’s taxation system for corporate investment in R&D was much less in the global context and put forward reform suggestions.
Moderated by Wang Min, speakers Yao Yang, Zhang Yuyan, Yu Miaojie and Xu Shanda joined the panel discussion.
In the second part of the keynote speech, experts and scholars discussed around the theme of “How to Achieve‘Dual Circulation’Development (section one): Digital Economy, Investment, and Finance”. Huang Zhuo, Associate Professor at the NSD and Director of Digital Finance Research Center of Peking University chaired this session. An Xiaopeng, Deputy Head of the AliResearch gave a speech entitled “Releasing Digital Dividend is the Focus of ‘Dual Circulation’ Development Pattern”. Qi Yudong, Dean of the School of Economics and Business Administration of the Beijing Normal University, gave a speech focusing on the digital economy and regulatory transformation. After guest speakers finished their speeches, Huang Zhuo, An Xiaopeng, Qi Yudong, and Adjunct Professor Miao Yanliang with the NSD exchanged their views and answered questions from the audience.
The session on macroeconomic projections & the 55th economic observation report, was chaired by Gordon Guo'en Liu, Peking University Boya Chair Professor and Director of PKU China Center for Health Economic Research.
Gordon Guo'en Liu
Gao Shanwen, serving as Chief Economist in Essence Securities, took the example of the shockwaves sent by a series of bond default cases occurring in Henan and China’s other places. He held the market had played an increasingly bigger and more decisive role, provided that Chinese authorities could address the difficulties associated with the market-oriented reform. Yi Huan, Chief Economist at brokerage Huatai Securities, analyzed the short-term economic trends and influencing factors. She estimated that if the proposal of cutting overcapacity would not be overly carried out in traditional industries next year, the increased production capacity in new industries would bring about a cycle of mild capacity expansion. Yan Se, Chief Economist at Founder Securities and Associate Professor at the Guanghua School of Management of PKU, shared his thoughts on monetary policy in 2021. He said that next year, through liquidity and flexible adjustment of credit instead of raising interest rates, the policies could work better. After reviewing the unexpected situation of the economic trend, Lu Feng, Sinar Mas Chair Professor of Economics at the NSD, made a forward-looking judgment on setting China's economic growth to slow down and playing catch-up. He summarized the eight unexpected economic situations this year, and gave suggestions for future reforms.
The management parallel forum with the theme of “Corporate Response and Growth in the Context of Changing Global Landscape" was presided over by Zhang Li, Fa-Shu Chair Professor at the NSD."
Yu Yingtao, Co-President of Ziguang Group and CEO of New H3C delivered a speech on how China’s high-tech enterprises responded to the current situation. Nie Yongzhong, Chairman of Xirenma Group, focused on the theme of “The Dilemma Facing Chinese Chips and the Walking out of Difficulties”, in which he shared his ideas on the development of Chinese chips, the problems and corresponding solutions. Wang Jin, Vice President of Goldwind and General Manager of Domestic Marketing Center, gave a speech entitled “Opportunities and Challenges of Renewable Energy”. Yang Hua, Secretary General of TD Industry Alliance and Secretary-General of National Internet+ Alliance, shared his speech on how enterprises respond to and becoming stronger against the backdrop of changing global landscape, saying that our world is undergoing profound changes unseen in a century. Gao Li, Deputy Director and Founder Securities Executive Committee and the President of Founder Securities, shared his insights into and reflections on corporate investment and financing from the perspective of securities companies.
Chen Chunhua, K.C. Wong Chair Professor at Peking University, Dean of BiMBA Business School, and Zhang Weiying,PKU Boya Chair Professor and Director of PKU Center for Market and Network Economy also joined the discussions at the management parallel forum.
At the closing ceremony of the forum, Justin Yifu Lin, Honorary Dean of the NSD and Dean of Institute of New Structural Economics, delivered a speech. He pointed out that the concept of “fostering a new development paradigm with domestic circulation as the mainstay and domestic and international circulations reinforcing each other” was put forward based on the consideration for adhering to objective economic laws, in addition to a string of short-term reasons, he shared his thoughts on establishing a new "dual circulation" development pattern.
Justin Yifu Lin
This forum released a few index research results and research reports accomplished by NSD professors. Zhang Xiaobo, Chair Professor at the NSD and Director of PKU Center for Enterprise Research released the “Langrun Longxin China Regional Innovation and Entrepreneurship Index for 2020” via video link. Assistant Professor Ma Jingjing from the NSD released the “index for consumer confidence in China for 2020”. Shen Yan, Professor of Economics at the NSD, Deputy Director of the MOE-PKU Center for Human Capital and National Policy, and Deputy Director of PKU Institute of Digital Finance, released the “Chinese Investor Sentiment Index for 2020”. Xie Xuanli, Associate Professor of Management at the NSD and senior researcher of the PKU Institute of Digital Finance, released the “Embracing a New Life -- White Paper on China’s Convenient Payment Industry for 2020 ”. Fan Baoqun, Assistant Dean of the NSD and Executive Deputy Dean of BiMBA, released a report entitled “Preliminary Investigation of Legal Issues in the Business Environment of Private Enterprises”.
This forum was held online and offline. It received support from Baidu Finance, Sina Finance, Tencent News, Sohu Finance, Xinhuanet Thinker Nandu Live, Gaojing Live and other media outlets, and the live broadcast was streamed on the PKU’s platforms including PKU’s official Douyin and Kuaishou accounts, PKU’s BBS forum, PKU’s Baidu Baijia Account, PKU’s Video and PKU’s Video Account. A total of 3.51 million viewers watched the live broadcasting.